来源:点击:时间:2024-07-09 02:19
本文摘要:In July 2012, the Presidential election was kicking into high gear, the Olympics were about to begin, and most people thought it was a matter of time before shares of Apple hit $1,000.2012年7月份,美国总统议会选举步入高潮,伦敦奥运会将要揭幕,而大多数人都指出苹果(Apple)股价涨1,000美元只是一个时间问题。

In July 2012, the Presidential election was kicking into high gear, the Olympics were about to begin, and most people thought it was a matter of time before shares of Apple hit $1,000.2012年7月份,美国总统议会选举步入高潮,伦敦奥运会将要揭幕,而大多数人都指出苹果(Apple)股价涨1,000美元只是一个时间问题。Google (GOOG), meanwhile, was just muddling along. After doubling during 2009, its stock had been treading water around $600 a share for three and a half years. Apple (AAPL), too was trading around $600 a share, but the iPhone 5 was coming and the company Steve Jobs built seemed to have the wind at its back.与此同时,谷歌(Google)股票堪称“虚度光阴”。在2009年股价缩减到之后,谷歌股票在随后三年半的时间里仍然游走在600美元上下。去年7月份,苹果股价也正处于600美元左右,但iPhone 5将要发售,而乔布斯创下的苹果公司或许于是以一帆风顺。

Oh, how things have changed since then. Apples stock has fallen 29% since mid-July. And Google? Its gained 46%, pushing past the $800 milestone while Apple languishes near $424 a share. Apple is tussling with investors over whether to pay more dividends, while Google rallies merrily on.哦,自那以后,情势再次发生了多大的变化啊。自去年7月中旬以来,苹果股价早已暴跌了29%。

而谷歌呢?它的股价下跌了46%,突破了800美元大关,而苹果却躺在424美元附近。苹果正在与投资者就否减少发放股息的问题展开争斗,而谷歌股票则在喧闹下跌。There has been a lot of discussion over Apples decline in recent months, and comparatively less about Googles corresponding rise. But the difference in between the two boils down to this: Apple is increasingly seen as coming off one of the greatest runs in the history of Silicon Valley. And Google may just be at the start of one.近几个月以来,人们对于苹果股价暴跌进行了许多辩论,而相对而言,对于谷歌适当的下跌却较较少辩论。

但两者之间的这个差异可归结这点:苹果建构了硅谷历史上科技公司业绩快速增长最巅峰的一个阶段,但现在人们更加偏向于指出,这个阶段早已完结,而谷歌有可能正处于这样一个阶段的开始。That is the new image of Google after two quarters of impressive earnings and more signs that the company is laying plans for long-term growth. Looking at the consumer technology world over the next 10 to 20 years, we believe Google is far and away the best-positioned company, wrote Gene Munster, an influential tech analyst at Piper Jaffray.这就是谷歌在倒数两个季度取得不错业绩——而且有更加多迹象指出该公司正在制订长年发展计划——之后给人留给的新形象。“展望未来一二十年的消费科技领域,我们指出谷歌毫无疑问是占有最佳优势的公司,”投资银行派杰(Piper Jaffray)极具影响力的科技产业分析师吉恩?蒙斯特写到。Munster pointed not to search or other advertising, which still accounts for 87% of the companys revenue, but to new ventures that have yet to hit the market, like Google Glass and self-driving cars, which he called one of Googles biggest opportunities in the next 10 years.蒙斯特话中指的并不是搜寻或其他广告业务(这部分业务在谷歌的营收中仍占有87%的份额),而是指那些还没投入市场的新研发项目,比如谷歌眼镜和无人驾驶汽车——他称之为后者为谷歌“未来十年仅次于的机遇之一。

”Compare that with Apple, which is seeing its share of the smartphone and tablet market erode over time as lower-margin, lower-cost Android rivals sell more products, and as Apple responds with its own lower-margin products like the iPad Mini.与此比起,苹果看见自己在智能手机和平板电脑领域的市场份额正在随着时间的流逝而渐渐大跌,同时那些较低利润、低成本、使用安卓移动操作系统的竞争对手则提升了产品的销量,而且苹果也在发售迷你iPad等自己的较低利润产品不予反攻。Although Apple infamously holds its cards close to its vest, its working on its own new products -- some that could create an entirely new category like the rumored iWatch. Apple is also taking time to create a new TV device. Such new products could offer Apple new areas of growth -- the iWatch alone could produce $6 billion in revenue -- and beef up the companys profit margins to levels that would impress investors again.虽然苹果向来以守口如瓶闻名,但我们告诉,它正在研发自己的几款新产品——有些可能会构成一个全新的产品类别,比如传闻中的智能手表iWatch。此外,苹果还在投放时间研发一款新的电视产品。这样的新产品可为苹果获取新的快速增长领域——仅有iWatch就可产生60亿美元的营收,而且可把该公司的利润率提高到再度给投资者留给深刻印象的水平。

For now, however, sentiment is against Apple and strongly in favor of Google. This week, more analysts have joined the Google $1,000 club, citing other factors that could propel the stock higher in the coming year. Jeffries Co. argued that a four-digit price is possible, given improvements in the Motorola handset business and non-search areas such as YouTube and commerce initiatives. Perhaps more encouraging, clickthrough rates on mobile ads are rising, Jeffries analyst Brian Pitz wrote.然而,目前投资者并不寄予厚望苹果,忽略却反感寄予厚望谷歌。上周,更好的分析师指出谷歌股价将不会下跌至1,000美元,他们指出其他一些因素可能会在未来几年内推高谷歌股价。投资银行杰富瑞公司(Jeffries Co.)指出,考虑到摩托罗拉手机业务的业绩提高、YouTube等非搜寻领域以及电子商务计划,谷歌股价可能会下跌至四位数。

也许更加令人鼓舞的消息是,移动广告的点击率正在持续上升,杰富瑞公司(Jefferies)分析师布莱恩?皮兹如是写到。How deserved is this reversal of fortune between Apple and Googles stocks? Perhaps not as much as the stock charts might suggest. For much of the three years when Google was trading around $600 a share, it was subject to speculation that, first, it couldnt thrive in the era of Facebook (FB), and then later uncertainty around the new CEO Larry Page. The effectiveness of Pages bold steps are only now becoming apparent to investors.苹果和谷歌股票之间的这种运势反败为胜有多少合理的成分呢?实际情况也许并不是股票走势图有可能展现出出来的模样。


Apple, meanwhile, was riding a multi-year wave of bullishness and strong earnings growth that was driven by the iPhone and iPad. Those two products took years to conceive, design, and execute into the products we know. One thing that is certain about Apple -- its not sitting quietly counting its pile of cash. Its trying to design new category-defining products. The real question is whether those products will resonate with consumers the way the iPad has.与此同时,苹果已被投资者持续看涨多年,而且在iPhone和iPad的推展下,它的盈利快速增长展现出强大。这两款产品经过了多年的构想、设计以及继续执行,才构成我们如今所告诉的产品。


确实的问题在于,这些产品否不会像iPad那样,获得消费者的接纳和回响。In other words, there are real, fundamental changes going on at both of these companies, but the effects of those changes are greatly enhanced in the stock performance. Just as Google was underappreciated two years ago, so Apple could be today. Just as Apple was revered with blind bullishness then, so Google is at risk of being overvalued if it does reach $1,000 too quickly.换句话说,这两家公司都正在再次发生着一些实实在在的根本性变化,但这些变化的影响正在各自的股票展现出中被明显缩放。正如两年前谷歌得宠那样,苹果今天有可能也是如此。

正如那时那些盲目乐观的投资者极力尊崇苹果那样,如果谷歌股价过慢下跌到1,000美元的话,它现在就面对着股票估值偏高的风险。That doesnt mean Google is doomed or that Apple is set to rebound quickly. Both of these companies are going to have, at different times, their fallow periods as well as their blowout earnings reports. Both are going to keep working on projects that will offer growth for investors with a long-term focus.并不是说道谷歌在劫难逃,也不是说道苹果股价立刻就不会声浪。

这两家公司都将在有所不同的时候经历无所作为的低谷时期以及盈利报告大幅度超强预期的高潮时期。这两家公司都将侧重于长年发展策略,之后研发为投资者获取快速增长前景的项目。But for now, consider that Google is trading at 18 times its expected earnings this year, double the ratio for Apple. That shouldnt surprise anyone, but it also suggests that the recent reversal of fortunes making financial headlines today are priced into both of these tech giants. What is much less certain is where they will both be in a year or so from now.但现在,考虑到谷歌目前股价已超过其今年每股预期收益的18倍,是苹果的两倍。